Politics July 25, 2016: Trump overtakes Clinton leads with post-GOP convention poll bump




Trump overtakes Clinton leads with post-GOP convention poll bump

By Bonnie K. Goodman

(Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

(Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

GOP nominee Donald Trump is basking in the post-convention glow. Now Trump is leading rival presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in new polls released on Monday, July 25, 2016, the first day of the Democratic convention. Trump leads by three points in a new CNN/ORC poll, published on Monday, and Trump now ties with Clinton in the latest CBS News poll also released Monday. Election forecaster Nate Silver is also predicting that Trump could win now if the election happened today.

According to the new CNN/ORC poll, Trump gained six percent support post-convention. Now Trump is leading Clinton 48 to 45 percent. In the last CNN poll, Clinton had a 7-point lead 49 to 42 percent. In a four-way race with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Trump leads Clinton by five percent, 44 to 39 percent, showing a reversal of fortune.

Trump’s favorability and perception of honesty and trustworthiness are also increasing post-convention. Among voters, 46 percent view him favorably up 7 points, while 43 percent find him honest and trustworthy up four points, and now 39 percent would be proud to have President Trump up 7 points. American voters still find Clinton not honest or trustworthy, with 68 percent feeling that way.

According to the new CBS News survey, Trump and Clinton are tied at 42 percent. The CBS poll looked at the improved post-GOP convention “perception” of Trump, with 50 percent “feeling better” about the GOP nominee. Unfortunately, 58 percent of voters still think Trump is “unprepared for the presidency.” Unlike the CNN poll 56 percent do not think Trump is honest, and “61 percent said he lacks the temperament and personality” for the presidency. Meanwhile, 50 percent think Clinton is prepared for the presidency, think she is a strong leader and has the temperament to be president. Still, 66 percent deem her untrustworthy.

The poll good news continues with the latest RealClearPolitics average of polls, which gives Trump a slight advantage over Clinton of 0.2 points, with Trump having 44.1 percent to Clinton’s 43.9 percent.

Statistician Nate Silver on his site FiveThirtyEight is now predicting that Trump could win the election if it were held today. Silver tweeted, “If the election were today, Trump would likely win. But Clinton’s still favored long-term: https://t.co/2uB2oqpXy4 pic.twitter.com/HUTQMaVrBx – FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) July 25, 2016″ Trump’s odds to win are 57.5 percent to Clinton’s 42.5 percent. The prediction comes after two forecasts that gave Trump less than a 25 percent of winning the election in November.

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