Politics August 25, 2016: New polls show conflicted view of 2016 race still Clinton leads Trump

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New polls show conflicted view of 2016 race still Clinton leads Trump

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Despite all the scandals surrounding Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State she still is leading Republican nominee Donald Trump in national polls. Two new national polls show a conflicted view of the 2016 presidential race, suggesting the race might be closer than some poll indicate. According to a new national Quinnipiac University poll released on Thursday, Aug. 25, 2016, Clinton leads Trump by 10 points. However, an Economist/YouGov online poll published on Wednesday, Aug. 24 Clinton leads by only 3 points within the margin of error.

The new Quinnipiac University poll, Clinton leads Trump 51 to 41 percent in a two-way race. Factoring third party candidates, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Clinton’s lead shrinks to 7 points over Trump, 45 to 35 percent.

The numbers contrast with the latest Economist/YouGov online poll, where Clinton has the narrowest lead of all recent national polls, only three points. In the survey, Clinton has 47 percent to Trump’s 44 percent. The best national performance for Trump post-conventions. In a four-way race, Clinton’s lead expands to a point to a four percent margin, giving Clinton 42 percent to Trump’s 38 percent voter support.

Meanwhile, Clinton had her one of her largest poll margin leads of the campaign in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday, Aug. 23, with 12 points over Trump. In the survey, Clinton has 45 percent support to Trump’s 33 percent. In a four-way race, Clinton’s lead shrinks to 8 percent over Trump with 41 percent to 33 percent for the GOP nominee.

Although Reuters/Ipsos poll nearly makes the record, Clinton had her largest margin of 15 percent over Trump in the McClatchy-Marist survey released on Aug. 4, a post-Democratic convention poll, where Clinton led 48 percent to 33 percent.

In most recent polls, Clinton leads Trump by 8 to 10 percent, however, earlier this week, two other polls had Clinton leading Trump by 8 percent. In the NBC News/SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Online Tracking Poll released on Tuesday, Aug. 23, Clinton had the support of 50 percent of voters to Trump’s 42 percent. In a four-way race, Clinton only led Trump by 5 percent, 43 to 38 percent. In last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll, Clinton had 42 percent to Trump’s 34 percent. In a four-way race, Clinton lead shrunk by one, 41 to 34 percent.

Besides the recent Economist/YouGov online poll, the only other poll where the margin the two candidates was close was the Pew Research Center poll published on Aug. 18. In that Pew poll, Clinton led Trump by only four points, 41 percent to 39 percent. This survey looked solely at a four-way race. Clinton, however, is leading in many battleground states as well.

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