Politics August 25, 2016: New polls show conflicted view of 2016 race still Clinton leads Trump

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New polls show conflicted view of 2016 race still Clinton leads Trump

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Despite all the scandals surrounding Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State she still is leading Republican nominee Donald Trump in national polls. Two new national polls show a conflicted view of the 2016 presidential race, suggesting the race might be closer than some poll indicate. According to a new national Quinnipiac University poll released on Thursday, Aug. 25, 2016, Clinton leads Trump by 10 points. However, an Economist/YouGov online poll published on Wednesday, Aug. 24 Clinton leads by only 3 points within the margin of error.

The new Quinnipiac University poll, Clinton leads Trump 51 to 41 percent in a two-way race. Factoring third party candidates, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Clinton’s lead shrinks to 7 points over Trump, 45 to 35 percent.

The numbers contrast with the latest Economist/YouGov online poll, where Clinton has the narrowest lead of all recent national polls, only three points. In the survey, Clinton has 47 percent to Trump’s 44 percent. The best national performance for Trump post-conventions. In a four-way race, Clinton’s lead expands to a point to a four percent margin, giving Clinton 42 percent to Trump’s 38 percent voter support.

Meanwhile, Clinton had her one of her largest poll margin leads of the campaign in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday, Aug. 23, with 12 points over Trump. In the survey, Clinton has 45 percent support to Trump’s 33 percent. In a four-way race, Clinton’s lead shrinks to 8 percent over Trump with 41 percent to 33 percent for the GOP nominee.

Although Reuters/Ipsos poll nearly makes the record, Clinton had her largest margin of 15 percent over Trump in the McClatchy-Marist survey released on Aug. 4, a post-Democratic convention poll, where Clinton led 48 percent to 33 percent.

In most recent polls, Clinton leads Trump by 8 to 10 percent, however, earlier this week, two other polls had Clinton leading Trump by 8 percent. In the NBC News/SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Online Tracking Poll released on Tuesday, Aug. 23, Clinton had the support of 50 percent of voters to Trump’s 42 percent. In a four-way race, Clinton only led Trump by 5 percent, 43 to 38 percent. In last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll, Clinton had 42 percent to Trump’s 34 percent. In a four-way race, Clinton lead shrunk by one, 41 to 34 percent.

Besides the recent Economist/YouGov online poll, the only other poll where the margin the two candidates was close was the Pew Research Center poll published on Aug. 18. In that Pew poll, Clinton led Trump by only four points, 41 percent to 39 percent. This survey looked solely at a four-way race. Clinton, however, is leading in many battleground states as well.

Politics August 16, 2016: Clinton remains on top of polls leads Trump by 9 percent

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Clinton remains on top of polls leads Trump by 9 percent

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is continuing her reign atop of the 2016 presidential election polls. According to the latest NBC News/Survey Monkey Weekly, Election Tracking Poll published on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2016, Clinton leads Republican nominee Donald Trump by 9 points.

According to the NBC News poll, Clinton has 50 percent support to Trump’s 41 percent. Clinton’s lead shrinks, however, if the poll takes into account the two third party candidates, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Then Clinton only Trump by 6 percent, 43 percent to Trump’s 37 percent. Meanwhile, Johnson would have 11 percent support and Stein with 4 percent.

Despite Clinton’s lead, the public is only supporting her because they view her as the lesser of two evils. According to the poll, the public views both candidates unfavorably, with 59 percent viewing Clinton negatively and 64 percent viewing Trump negatively. When the voters were asked about the candidate’s attributes, where they considered them, “honesty, values and temperament,” most voters said none of the above.

Clinton’s main edge over is that 42 percent of voters say the Democratic nominee has the “personality and temperament to serve” as percent only 17 percent say that about Trump. While Trump has the edge on the honesty front, 16 percent of voters think he is honest versus only 11 percent that view Clinton as honest.

Clinton has been leading Trump in every post-Democratic National Convention poll since August with margins between 8 to 10 percent depending on the poll.  According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Clinton has a 6.8-point advantage of Trump, 47.8 to 41 percent. Clinton is also leading in most battleground states.

Politics August 15, 2016: New Electoral College projection Clinton 288, Trump 174, 76 tossup

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New Electoral College projection Clinton 288, Trump 174, 76 tossup

By Bonnie K. Goodman

If the polls were not enough a new Electoral College projection shows that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has the votes needs to win the election over her opponent Republican nominee Donald Trump. According to a new NBC News battleground map projection released on Monday, Aug. 15, 2016, Clinton has 288 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 174 with 76 still up in the air, 270 votes are needed to win the presidency.

The NBC News projection tallies include the states that are solidly and leaning towards the candidate. Among the states considered a tossup are Florida, Iowa, and Ohio, although according to most polls Clinton is leading in those states. Georgia and Nevada are also in the tossup column. Some states that were formerly tossup including Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, and Michigan are now solidly Democrat.

Trump has been drowning in the polls since after the Democratic National Convention. Since then Trump’s numbers have been plummeting that he now sits between 8 and 10 points behind Clinton, who is dominating not only the national polls but also those in battleground states. According to FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecasts Clinton has an 89 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has only an 11 percent chance.

Politics August 14, 2016: Trump blames biased news media coverage for bad poll numbers

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Trump blames biased news media coverage for bad poll numbers

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is blaming the news media for his weak poll numbers. Trump began his attack on the media on a Saturday evening, Aug. 13, 2016, rally in Fairfield, Connecticut, and continued to rant against the media in a series of tweets on Sunday, Aug. 14.

Trump began expressing this sentiment at a Fairfield, Connecticut rally Saturday evening, telling supporters, “I’m not running against crooked Hillary Clinton. I’m running against the crooked media.”

Then in a series of tweets on Sunday morning, Aug. 14 Trump blasted the media for bias, attacking him and shielding Clinton. Trump wrote in the morning, “If the disgusting and corrupt media covered me honestly and didn’t put false meaning into the words I say, I would be beating Hillary by 20%.”

Continuing, Trump tweeted in the afternoon, “It is not “freedom of the press” when newspapers and others are allowed to say and write whatever they want even if it is completely false!” and “Crooked Hillary Clinton is being protected by the media. She is not a talented person or politician. The dishonest media refuses to expose!”

Trump believes the media skews what he says but ignores his larger message. In a tweet from Sunday evening, he wrote, “My rallies are not covered properly by the media. They never discuss the real message and never show crowd size or enthusiasm.”

The news media has been biased against Trump, over-analyzing every word he said, but letting Clinton’s scandals and potential abuse of power during her State Department tenure go with minimal coverage. The scrutiny is impossible to live up to, with the media emphasizing out of context sound bites rather Trump’s larger message or even as he pointed out his rallies and a large number of supporters present. No matter what Clinton does, the media does not find fault, but according to them, everything Trump does is wrong.

Politics July 25, 2016: Trump overtakes Clinton leads with post-GOP convention poll bump

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Trump overtakes Clinton leads with post-GOP convention poll bump

By Bonnie K. Goodman

(Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

(Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

GOP nominee Donald Trump is basking in the post-convention glow. Now Trump is leading rival presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in new polls released on Monday, July 25, 2016, the first day of the Democratic convention. Trump leads by three points in a new CNN/ORC poll, published on Monday, and Trump now ties with Clinton in the latest CBS News poll also released Monday. Election forecaster Nate Silver is also predicting that Trump could win now if the election happened today.

According to the new CNN/ORC poll, Trump gained six percent support post-convention. Now Trump is leading Clinton 48 to 45 percent. In the last CNN poll, Clinton had a 7-point lead 49 to 42 percent. In a four-way race with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Trump leads Clinton by five percent, 44 to 39 percent, showing a reversal of fortune.

Trump’s favorability and perception of honesty and trustworthiness are also increasing post-convention. Among voters, 46 percent view him favorably up 7 points, while 43 percent find him honest and trustworthy up four points, and now 39 percent would be proud to have President Trump up 7 points. American voters still find Clinton not honest or trustworthy, with 68 percent feeling that way.

According to the new CBS News survey, Trump and Clinton are tied at 42 percent. The CBS poll looked at the improved post-GOP convention “perception” of Trump, with 50 percent “feeling better” about the GOP nominee. Unfortunately, 58 percent of voters still think Trump is “unprepared for the presidency.” Unlike the CNN poll 56 percent do not think Trump is honest, and “61 percent said he lacks the temperament and personality” for the presidency. Meanwhile, 50 percent think Clinton is prepared for the presidency, think she is a strong leader and has the temperament to be president. Still, 66 percent deem her untrustworthy.

The poll good news continues with the latest RealClearPolitics average of polls, which gives Trump a slight advantage over Clinton of 0.2 points, with Trump having 44.1 percent to Clinton’s 43.9 percent.

Statistician Nate Silver on his site FiveThirtyEight is now predicting that Trump could win the election if it were held today. Silver tweeted, “If the election were today, Trump would likely win. But Clinton’s still favored long-term: https://t.co/2uB2oqpXy4 pic.twitter.com/HUTQMaVrBx – FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) July 25, 2016″ Trump’s odds to win are 57.5 percent to Clinton’s 42.5 percent. The prediction comes after two forecasts that gave Trump less than a 25 percent of winning the election in November.

Politics July 13, 2016: Clinton lead over Trump narrows as he leads in swing states

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Clinton leads over Trump narrows as he leads in swing states

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s lead over presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump has narrowed. A new McClatchy-Marist poll published on Wednesday, July 13, 2016, shows the presidential race is getting tighter, with Clinton leading Trump by only three percentage points. Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac University poll also published Wednesday indicates that Trump is leading Clinton in the all important swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania and ties his rival in Ohio. Winning these battleground states are essential to winning the election.

According to the McClatchy-Marist poll, Clinton leads Trump 42 percent to 39 percent. Independents are key to the close race, 36 percent support Clinton, 33 percent Trump with 23 percent undecided. In a four-way match with third party candidates Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Clinton’s leads increases, with a five percent advantage over Trump 40 percent to 35 percent support.

According to the Quinnipiac University poll looking at crucial battleground states, Trump has a three-point lead over Clinton 42 percent to 39 percent. Trump has a two percent lead over Clinton in Pennsylvania, 43 to 41 percent. The two tie in Ohio 41 percent each. When third party candidates are factored in Trump’s lead grows and he also leads in Ohio. In Florida, Trump leads Clinton by five percent, 41 to 36. In Pennsylvania Trump leads by six percent, 40 to 34 and in Ohio, Trump get a marginal one point lead, 37 to 36 percent.

Demographically the two nominees are divided as well. Clinton has the support of “African-Americans, 81 to 6 percent; Hispanics, 52 to 26 percent; and women, 51 to 33 percent.” Additionally, Clinton has the support of college graduates, millennials and Americans who earn “less than $45,000 a year.” Trump on the other hand has the support of white voters, “49 to 34 percent, and men, 47 to 33 percent.” Additionally, Trump leads in support from “non-college graduates and those ages 60 and older.”

Both candidates are very unpopular, with high negative favorable ratings. Clinton has a 60 percent unfavorable rating, while Trump has 64 percent. Voter support of each respective candidate has a lot to do with voting against the rival candidate. With 48 percent of Clinton supporters backing her because they oppose Trump and 56 percent of Trump supporters opposing Clinton.

Clinton’s tumble in the polls is because of the FBI’s harsh non-indictment against Clinton over her usage of a private email server during her tenure as Secretary of State. Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll analyzed, “While there is no definite link between Clinton’s drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty.” Meanwhile momentum is increasing for Trump as he is set to name his vice presidential running mate.

Politics July 11, 2016: Majority of Americans disapprove of the FBI deciding to charge Clinton over email server

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Majority of Americans disapprove of the FBI deciding to charge Clinton over email server

By Bonnie K. Goodman

American voters agree with Republicans that the FBI should have charged former Secretary of State and presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton for using her private server and mishandling classified information during her tenure. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll published on Monday, July 11, 2016, shows that a majority of Americans disagree with the FBI’s decision. Voters are also worried about how Clinton will deal with the “responsibilities” of the presidency.

According to the poll, 56 percent of Americans disagree with “FBI Director James Comey’s recommendation not to charge Clinton,” while only 35 percent agree with his decision. American even worried about how Clinton would act as president, although 39 percent are not worried about how she would perform as president.

There are partisan divisions over the FBI’s decision, with 90 percent of Republicans objecting to Comey’s decision. Democrats are not too pleased with Clinton’s actions either with 30  percent believing she should have faced charges, while 60 percent agree with the FBI and Attorney General Loretta Lynch closing the case on their presidential nominee.

Although Clinton will not face any criminal charges, 28 percent of Americans are less likely to vote for Clinton in November after the yearlong investigation into her handling of classified information. Last week when Comey announced he would not charge Clinton, he still expressed that she and her aides’ treatment of classified information were “extremely reckless.”

Political Musings January 26, 2015: Romney beats Hillary Clinton on Facebook if not in the 2016 campaign polls

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Romney beats Hillary Clinton on Facebook if not in the 2016 campaign polls

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Although Democrats Hillary Clinton seems to be beating all her potential Republican presidential campaign opponents including frontrunner Mitt Romney, she loses according to Facebook. Clinton does not even have her own official page on the social networking site, only one…READ MORE

Political Musings January 19, 2015: Obama’s unbelievable poll numbers is the liberal media boosting the lame duck?

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Obama’s unbelievable poll numbers is the liberal media boosting the lame duck?

By Bonnie K. Goodman

For President Barack Obama not only can he declare the State of the Union is good or strong, but so is the state of his presidency according to recent polls some, which his approval rating has yet again the…READ MORE

Political Musings January 18, 2015: CBS poll declares Romney GOP 2016 frontrunner Bush has no chance against Clinton

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CBS poll declares Romney GOP 2016 frontrunner Bush has no chance against Clinton

By Bonnie K. Goodman

CBS News released a new poll on Sunday, Jan. 18, 2015 examined, which candidates American voters would like to see in the 2016 presidential campaign from the Democratic or Republican Parties. According to the public Both Romney and Hillary Clinton…READ MORE

Political Musings December 29, 2014: Obama, Hillary Clinton again top Gallup’s most admired men, women of the year

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OBAMA PRESIDENCY & THE 113TH CONGRESS:

Obama, Hillary Clinton again top Gallup’s most admired men, women of the year

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Gallup Poll released on Monday, Dec. 29, 2014 their list of most admired men and women for the year with predictable results. For the seventh straight year, President Barack Obama has topped the list of most admired men, while Hillary…READ MORE

Political Musings December 28, 2014: Obama receives improved job approval ratings in CNN Christmas poll miracle

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Obama receives improved job approval ratings in CNN Christmas poll miracle

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Christmas came early from President Barack Obama this year, a new CNN/ORC poll released two days before Christmas on Thursday, Dec. 23, 2014, showed a definite improvement in Obama’s approval rating. The poll found that the president…READ MORE

Political Musings November 26, 2014: Romney top GOP choice for 2016 campaign, would win over Hillary Clinton

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Romney top GOP choice for 2016 campaign, would win over Hillary Clinton

By Bonnie K. Goodman

The Republican Party wants Mitt Romney for their nominee in the 2016 presidential campaign, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday morning, Nov. 26, 2014. In the poll, the former 2012 Republican candidate tops the pool of…READ MORE

Political Musings October 23, 2014: Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton top 2016 presidential campaign polls

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OP-EDS & ARTICLES

Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton top 2016 presidential campaign polls

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Two new polls from last week prove Americans want a Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney match-up in the 2016 presidential campaign. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll was released on Sunday, Oct. 19, 2014 looking at the 2016 Election…READ MORE

Political Musings October 15, 2014: Unpopular Obama sees lowest rating as Republicans set to win Senate in midterms

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Unpopular Obama sees lowest rating as Republicans set to win Senate in midterms

By Bonnie K. Goodman

President Barack Obama and Democrats are facing more bad news with just three weeks left before the midterm elections on Nov. 4, 2014. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2014 gives…READ MORE

Political Musings August 8, 2014: Obama, Congress’ failing grades record approval rating lows in NBC News-WSJ poll

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OBAMA PRESIDENCY & THE 113TH CONGRESS:

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Obama, Congress’ failing grades record approval rating lows in NBC News-WSJ poll

By Bonnie K. Goodman

President Barack Obama received one belated birthday present he would liked to do without new approval rating lows in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday morning, August 6, 2014. The only news in the poll that might…READ MORE

Political Musings June 19, 2014: Obama the lame duck has lost Americans’ confidence to lead in WSJ/NBC News poll

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Political Musings June 16, 2014: Obama is now just as loved or not as Bush as favorable ratings hit new lows

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Political Musings June 9, 2014: New poll finds Obama less competent than both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush

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OBAMA PRESIDENCY & THE 113TH CONGRESS:

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Recent polls are giving President Barack Obama a stream of bad news, now a new Fox News poll released on Wednesday, June 4, 2014 finds that Americans consider Obama less competent than his recent predecessors. The new Fox News poll…Continue

Political Musings June 5, 2014: Obama hits new approval ratings poll lows on foreign policy, economy, Benghazi

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OBAMA PRESIDENCY & THE 113TH CONGRESS:

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A new ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Tuesday, June 3, 2014 gives President Barack Obama the lowest marks of presidency on foreign policy and the handling of the Benghazi Affair. The presidency also keeps getting low approval ratings…Continue

Political Musings May 4, 2014: Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush top polls, receive 2016 presidential run endorsements

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Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush top polls, receive 2016 presidential run endorsements

By Bonnie K. Goodman

In the pre-primary early stages of the 2016 presidential campaign, the race is becoming clear even though none of the potential candidates have announced there are intending to run. At this time former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of…READ MORE/a>

 

Political Musings March 22, 2014: Gallup says Hillary Clinton set for history making first woman president in 2016

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OBAMA PRESIDENCY & THE 113TH CONGRESS:

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Americans are looking to make history again in 2016, at least according to a new Gallup survey released on Friday, March 21, 2014, this time by electing the first female president. According to the new survey part of what excites…READ MORE

Political Musings March 16, 2014: New CNN poll says Hillary Clinton is a stronger and tougher leader than Obama

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Six years later a new CNN/ORC International survey released on Sunday, March 16, 2014 answers a lingering question from the 2008 presidential campaign, who is the tougher more trustworthy leader in a crisis former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton…Continue

Political Musings March 16, 2014: Rand Paul and Hillary Clinton top CNN 2016 presidential candidates poll

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Rand Paul and Hillary Clinton top CNN 2016 presidential candidates poll

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul topped his second straight poll in a week of “potential Republican presidential candidates,” while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton maintained her supremacy at the top of the potential Democratic candidates list in a…

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Political Musings March 12, 2014: Obama hits new low in NBC News/WSJ poll spells trouble for Democrats in midterms

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OBAMA PRESIDENCY & THE 113TH CONGRESS:

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President Barack Obama’s midterm election year approval ratings are not boding well for Democrats; a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on Wednesday, March 12, 2014 finds the president with a new approval rating low of…READ MORE
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