Politics July 25, 2016: Trump overtakes Clinton leads with post-GOP convention poll bump

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Trump overtakes Clinton leads with post-GOP convention poll bump

By Bonnie K. Goodman

(Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

(Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

GOP nominee Donald Trump is basking in the post-convention glow. Now Trump is leading rival presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in new polls released on Monday, July 25, 2016, the first day of the Democratic convention. Trump leads by three points in a new CNN/ORC poll, published on Monday, and Trump now ties with Clinton in the latest CBS News poll also released Monday. Election forecaster Nate Silver is also predicting that Trump could win now if the election happened today.

According to the new CNN/ORC poll, Trump gained six percent support post-convention. Now Trump is leading Clinton 48 to 45 percent. In the last CNN poll, Clinton had a 7-point lead 49 to 42 percent. In a four-way race with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Trump leads Clinton by five percent, 44 to 39 percent, showing a reversal of fortune.

Trump’s favorability and perception of honesty and trustworthiness are also increasing post-convention. Among voters, 46 percent view him favorably up 7 points, while 43 percent find him honest and trustworthy up four points, and now 39 percent would be proud to have President Trump up 7 points. American voters still find Clinton not honest or trustworthy, with 68 percent feeling that way.

According to the new CBS News survey, Trump and Clinton are tied at 42 percent. The CBS poll looked at the improved post-GOP convention “perception” of Trump, with 50 percent “feeling better” about the GOP nominee. Unfortunately, 58 percent of voters still think Trump is “unprepared for the presidency.” Unlike the CNN poll 56 percent do not think Trump is honest, and “61 percent said he lacks the temperament and personality” for the presidency. Meanwhile, 50 percent think Clinton is prepared for the presidency, think she is a strong leader and has the temperament to be president. Still, 66 percent deem her untrustworthy.

The poll good news continues with the latest RealClearPolitics average of polls, which gives Trump a slight advantage over Clinton of 0.2 points, with Trump having 44.1 percent to Clinton’s 43.9 percent.

Statistician Nate Silver on his site FiveThirtyEight is now predicting that Trump could win the election if it were held today. Silver tweeted, “If the election were today, Trump would likely win. But Clinton’s still favored long-term: https://t.co/2uB2oqpXy4 pic.twitter.com/HUTQMaVrBx – FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) July 25, 2016″ Trump’s odds to win are 57.5 percent to Clinton’s 42.5 percent. The prediction comes after two forecasts that gave Trump less than a 25 percent of winning the election in November.

Politics July 13, 2016: Clinton lead over Trump narrows as he leads in swing states

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Clinton leads over Trump narrows as he leads in swing states

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s lead over presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump has narrowed. A new McClatchy-Marist poll published on Wednesday, July 13, 2016, shows the presidential race is getting tighter, with Clinton leading Trump by only three percentage points. Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac University poll also published Wednesday indicates that Trump is leading Clinton in the all important swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania and ties his rival in Ohio. Winning these battleground states are essential to winning the election.

According to the McClatchy-Marist poll, Clinton leads Trump 42 percent to 39 percent. Independents are key to the close race, 36 percent support Clinton, 33 percent Trump with 23 percent undecided. In a four-way match with third party candidates Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Clinton’s leads increases, with a five percent advantage over Trump 40 percent to 35 percent support.

According to the Quinnipiac University poll looking at crucial battleground states, Trump has a three-point lead over Clinton 42 percent to 39 percent. Trump has a two percent lead over Clinton in Pennsylvania, 43 to 41 percent. The two tie in Ohio 41 percent each. When third party candidates are factored in Trump’s lead grows and he also leads in Ohio. In Florida, Trump leads Clinton by five percent, 41 to 36. In Pennsylvania Trump leads by six percent, 40 to 34 and in Ohio, Trump get a marginal one point lead, 37 to 36 percent.

Demographically the two nominees are divided as well. Clinton has the support of “African-Americans, 81 to 6 percent; Hispanics, 52 to 26 percent; and women, 51 to 33 percent.” Additionally, Clinton has the support of college graduates, millennials and Americans who earn “less than $45,000 a year.” Trump on the other hand has the support of white voters, “49 to 34 percent, and men, 47 to 33 percent.” Additionally, Trump leads in support from “non-college graduates and those ages 60 and older.”

Both candidates are very unpopular, with high negative favorable ratings. Clinton has a 60 percent unfavorable rating, while Trump has 64 percent. Voter support of each respective candidate has a lot to do with voting against the rival candidate. With 48 percent of Clinton supporters backing her because they oppose Trump and 56 percent of Trump supporters opposing Clinton.

Clinton’s tumble in the polls is because of the FBI’s harsh non-indictment against Clinton over her usage of a private email server during her tenure as Secretary of State. Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll analyzed, “While there is no definite link between Clinton’s drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty.” Meanwhile momentum is increasing for Trump as he is set to name his vice presidential running mate.

Politics July 11, 2016: Majority of Americans disapprove of the FBI deciding to charge Clinton over email server

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Majority of Americans disapprove of the FBI deciding to charge Clinton over email server

By Bonnie K. Goodman

American voters agree with Republicans that the FBI should have charged former Secretary of State and presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton for using her private server and mishandling classified information during her tenure. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll published on Monday, July 11, 2016, shows that a majority of Americans disagree with the FBI’s decision. Voters are also worried about how Clinton will deal with the “responsibilities” of the presidency.

According to the poll, 56 percent of Americans disagree with “FBI Director James Comey’s recommendation not to charge Clinton,” while only 35 percent agree with his decision. American even worried about how Clinton would act as president, although 39 percent are not worried about how she would perform as president.

There are partisan divisions over the FBI’s decision, with 90 percent of Republicans objecting to Comey’s decision. Democrats are not too pleased with Clinton’s actions either with 30  percent believing she should have faced charges, while 60 percent agree with the FBI and Attorney General Loretta Lynch closing the case on their presidential nominee.

Although Clinton will not face any criminal charges, 28 percent of Americans are less likely to vote for Clinton in November after the yearlong investigation into her handling of classified information. Last week when Comey announced he would not charge Clinton, he still expressed that she and her aides’ treatment of classified information were “extremely reckless.”

Political Musings January 26, 2015: Romney beats Hillary Clinton on Facebook if not in the 2016 campaign polls

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Romney beats Hillary Clinton on Facebook if not in the 2016 campaign polls

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Although Democrats Hillary Clinton seems to be beating all her potential Republican presidential campaign opponents including frontrunner Mitt Romney, she loses according to Facebook. Clinton does not even have her own official page on the social networking site, only one…READ MORE

Political Musings January 19, 2015: Obama’s unbelievable poll numbers is the liberal media boosting the lame duck?

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Obama’s unbelievable poll numbers is the liberal media boosting the lame duck?

By Bonnie K. Goodman

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Political Musings January 18, 2015: CBS poll declares Romney GOP 2016 frontrunner Bush has no chance against Clinton

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CBS poll declares Romney GOP 2016 frontrunner Bush has no chance against Clinton

By Bonnie K. Goodman

CBS News released a new poll on Sunday, Jan. 18, 2015 examined, which candidates American voters would like to see in the 2016 presidential campaign from the Democratic or Republican Parties. According to the public Both Romney and Hillary Clinton…READ MORE

Political Musings December 29, 2014: Obama, Hillary Clinton again top Gallup’s most admired men, women of the year

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Obama, Hillary Clinton again top Gallup’s most admired men, women of the year

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Gallup Poll released on Monday, Dec. 29, 2014 their list of most admired men and women for the year with predictable results. For the seventh straight year, President Barack Obama has topped the list of most admired men, while Hillary…READ MORE

Political Musings December 28, 2014: Obama receives improved job approval ratings in CNN Christmas poll miracle

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Obama receives improved job approval ratings in CNN Christmas poll miracle

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Christmas came early from President Barack Obama this year, a new CNN/ORC poll released two days before Christmas on Thursday, Dec. 23, 2014, showed a definite improvement in Obama’s approval rating. The poll found that the president…READ MORE

Political Musings November 26, 2014: Romney top GOP choice for 2016 campaign, would win over Hillary Clinton

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Romney top GOP choice for 2016 campaign, would win over Hillary Clinton

By Bonnie K. Goodman

The Republican Party wants Mitt Romney for their nominee in the 2016 presidential campaign, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday morning, Nov. 26, 2014. In the poll, the former 2012 Republican candidate tops the pool of…READ MORE

Political Musings October 23, 2014: Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton top 2016 presidential campaign polls

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Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton top 2016 presidential campaign polls

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Two new polls from last week prove Americans want a Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney match-up in the 2016 presidential campaign. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll was released on Sunday, Oct. 19, 2014 looking at the 2016 Election…READ MORE

Political Musings October 15, 2014: Unpopular Obama sees lowest rating as Republicans set to win Senate in midterms

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Unpopular Obama sees lowest rating as Republicans set to win Senate in midterms

By Bonnie K. Goodman

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Political Musings August 8, 2014: Obama, Congress’ failing grades record approval rating lows in NBC News-WSJ poll

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Obama, Congress’ failing grades record approval rating lows in NBC News-WSJ poll

By Bonnie K. Goodman

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Political Musings June 19, 2014: Obama the lame duck has lost Americans’ confidence to lead in WSJ/NBC News poll

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Political Musings June 16, 2014: Obama is now just as loved or not as Bush as favorable ratings hit new lows

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Political Musings June 9, 2014: New poll finds Obama less competent than both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush

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Recent polls are giving President Barack Obama a stream of bad news, now a new Fox News poll released on Wednesday, June 4, 2014 finds that Americans consider Obama less competent than his recent predecessors. The new Fox News poll…Continue

Political Musings June 5, 2014: Obama hits new approval ratings poll lows on foreign policy, economy, Benghazi

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A new ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Tuesday, June 3, 2014 gives President Barack Obama the lowest marks of presidency on foreign policy and the handling of the Benghazi Affair. The presidency also keeps getting low approval ratings…Continue

Political Musings May 4, 2014: Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush top polls, receive 2016 presidential run endorsements

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Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush top polls, receive 2016 presidential run endorsements

By Bonnie K. Goodman

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Political Musings March 22, 2014: Gallup says Hillary Clinton set for history making first woman president in 2016

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Political Musings March 16, 2014: New CNN poll says Hillary Clinton is a stronger and tougher leader than Obama

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Six years later a new CNN/ORC International survey released on Sunday, March 16, 2014 answers a lingering question from the 2008 presidential campaign, who is the tougher more trustworthy leader in a crisis former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton…Continue

Political Musings March 16, 2014: Rand Paul and Hillary Clinton top CNN 2016 presidential candidates poll

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Rand Paul and Hillary Clinton top CNN 2016 presidential candidates poll

By Bonnie K. Goodman

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul topped his second straight poll in a week of “potential Republican presidential candidates,” while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton maintained her supremacy at the top of the potential Democratic candidates list in a…

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Political Musings March 12, 2014: Obama hits new low in NBC News/WSJ poll spells trouble for Democrats in midterms

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President Barack Obama’s midterm election year approval ratings are not boding well for Democrats; a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on Wednesday, March 12, 2014 finds the president with a new approval rating low of…READ MORE

Political Musings February 18, 2014: Obama reaches approval rating lows in Presidents’ Day polls

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Political Musings December 30, 2013: Obama and Clinton continue to lead Gallup’s yearly most admired lists

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When Gallup released their list of “Most Admired” for 2013 on Monday, Dec. 30, 2013, the two usual suspects topped the lists in the Most Admired Man and Most Admired Woman categories, President Barack Obama and former Secretary…READ MORE

Political Musings December 27, 2013: Congress may be worst, but Republicans ahead in CNN poll for midterm elections

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OBAMA PRESIDENCY & THE 113TH CONGRESS:

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Political Musings December 17, 2013: Obama’s year-end poll lowest of presidency, lower than most recent presidents

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OBAMA PRESIDENCY & THE 113TH CONGRESS:

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President Barck Obama is ending the fifth year of his presidency with one of the lowest approval ratings his has on record. The latest poll released on Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2013 conducted by ABC News and the Washington Post. The…READ MORE
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